5km Predictor Test

Testing and measurement are the means of collecting information upon which subsequent performance evaluations and decisions are made but in the analysis we need to bear in mind the factors that may influence the results.

Objective

The 5km Predictor Test is used to predict an athlete's 5 kilometre time.

Required Resources

To undertake this test you will require:

400 metre track
Stop watch
An assistant

How to conduct the test

The athlete is required to run 4 × 1600 metres with 90 seconds recovery between each run and the time for each 1600 metres is recorded.

Calculate the average of the 4 recorded times and multiply the result by 3.125. The result is the predicted 5km time for the athlete.

The 3.125 comes from the fact the average time is for 1600 metres and we require a time for 5000 metres hence we need to divide the time by 1600 and multiply the result by 5000 (5000 ÷ 1600 = 3.125)

Example

The recorded times for each 1600 metres are:

4 minutes 5 seconds
4 minutes 10 seconds
4 minutes 18 seconds
4 minutes 32 seconds

Average time of the four runs is 4 minutes 16.25 seconds (256.25 seconds)

Multiply the result by 3.125 = 13 minutes 20.8 seconds

Predicted time for the 5km is 13 minutes 20.8 seconds

When to use

To predict performance and monitor progress this test can be used at the:

beginning of the winter training to establish a baseline (September/October)
just prior to indoor racing (December/January)
just prior to the outdoor season (March/April)

Analysis

Analysis of the result is by comparing it with the results of previous tests. It is expected that, with appropriate training between each test, the analysis would indicate an improvement.

Target Group

This test is suitable for middle distance athletes but not for individuals where the test would be contraindicated.

Reliability

Test reliability refers to the degree to which a test is consistent and stable in measuring what it is intended to measure.

Reliability will depend upon how strict the test is conducted and the individual's level of motivation to perform the test.

Validity

Test validity refers to the degree to which the test actually measures what it claims to measure and the extent to which inferences, conclusions, and decisions made on the basis of test scores are appropriate and meaningful. This test provides a means to monitor the effect of training on the athlete's physical development. The degree to which the test actually predicts 5km times is high.

Free Calculator

5km Predictor - a free Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that you can download and use on your computer.

Associated Pages

The following Sports Coach pages should be read in conjunction with this page: